Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are down 3 to 4 1/2 cents in the front months. Census trade data released this morning shows 2.825 MMT (111.22 mbu) of US corn exported during August. That is 2% lower than last month and less than half from a year ago. Corn exports for the full MY were 2.060 bbu, matching USDA’s projection. They also tallied August ethanol exports at a monthly record 122.5 million gallons. The Trump Administration has announced commitments towards a new biofuels policy. The EPA’s new policy will boost annual biofuels blending quotas. The plan has until Nov 30 to finalize volumes for 2020 and proceed with enacting the new requirements. IEG Vantage (formerly Informa) estimates the US corn yield at 167.5 bpa, down 2.1 bpa from their previous number.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.84 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.96 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.02, down 4 cents

JUL 20 Corn is at $4.05 1/2, down 3 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures are seen up 5 to 6 3/4 in the nearby contracts. There were scattered reports of frost damage on late planted beans. Soybean meal is up $1.6/ton with soy oil down 7 points at Friday’s midday. Census trade data this morning revealed a record for August exports at 4.931 MMT, or 181.19 mbu. That put the full 18/19 MY total at 1.748 bbu, about 3mbu above USDA’s Sep projection. Of the August total 2.68 MMT was to China (489.5 mbu). Soy meal exports were at 939,711 MT, which was just shy of last year’s August record. The census data noted August soy oil exports at 75,109 MT. IEG Vantage updated their estimated 2019 soybean yield to 46.5 bpa, down 1.9 bpa from last month.

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.18, up 6 1/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $9.31 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $9.42 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.51 1/4, up 5 cents,

OCT 19 Soybean Meal is at $299.60, up $1.60,

OCT 19 Soybean Oil is at $29.73, down $0.07

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are trading mixed for the winter wheat contracts, but are 5 cents higher in MPLS wheat so far on Friday. Census data released this morning showed August wheat exports at a 3-year high 2.57 MMT, which is 94.46 mbu. That is up 32.48% from July, and 23.05% higher from August 2018. SE Asia took 21% (553,701 MT), with 20% shipped to Mexico (519,202 MT) during August. Weekly export commitments for wheat are now 49% of USDA’s projected 19/20 MY total, vs. the normal 56% pace.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.89 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.04, down 1 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.34 1/2, up 5 cents

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle future are up 20 to 72.5 cents in the nearby contracts, with other contracts seen trading lower. Feeder cattle futures down 27.5 to 65 cents. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down 17 cents on Oct. 2 at $142.92. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Friday. Choice boxes were down 6 cents to $212.00, with Select boxes 7 cents lower to $187.14, with the Chc/Select spread at $24.86. USDA estimated week to date FI slaughter is 467,000 head, which is down 4,000 from the same Thursday last year. Sales of $107 have been reported in the South on Friday, with a few dressed sales of $170 in NE. Census data released this morning showed 261.25 million lbs of beef exports in August when converted to USDA numbers. That was down 9.4% from last year and 4.5% lower than July shipments.

OCT 19 Cattle are at $107.525, up $0.725,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $111.025, up $0.200,

FEB 20 Cattle are at $116.850, down $0.150,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.075, down $0.275

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.450, down $0.650

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $137.700, down $0.550

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are down $0.52 to $1.40 on Friday at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 89 cents to $58.72 on Oct 2. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 48 cents to $75.84 on Friday at midday. The national average base hog value was 93 cents lower at $49.02 on Friday. FI week to date estimated hog slaughter is ahead of last year’s pace by 5.2% at 1.957 million head. Census pork exports during August totaled 508.59 million lbs after converting to USDA numbers. That was a record for August but 6.2% lower than July.

OCT 19 Hogs are at $61.900, down $0.525,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $66.700, down $1.400

FEB 20 Hogs are at $73.900, down $1.400

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are up 9 to 23 points in the nearby contracts as the stealth rally continues. August cotton exports were a 10 year high with 1.034 million bales exported. That was up 26.14% form last year but down 27.7% from July. Export commitments via weekly data show upland cotton at 57% of the USDA projection, ahead of the normal 50% pace. The Cotlook A Index was up 25 points at 71.95 cents/lb for October 3. The updated AWP for this week saw a slight gain to 53.36 cents/lb.

DEC 19 Cotton is at 61.83, up 23 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 62.58, up 22 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 63.36, up 9 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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