Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures finished the week with a 3.57% gain, closing at $3.85 Dec. The CFTC report showed managed money net short corn by 126,174 contracts, a reduction of 33,716 contracts from the previous week. IEG Vantage (formerly Informa) estimates the US corn yield at 167.5 bpa, down 2.1 bpa from their previous number. Census trade data released this morning shows 2.825 MMT (111.22 mbu) of US corn exported during August, which is 44% from a year ago. They also tallied August ethanol exports at a new record for August at 122.5 million gallons. The Trump Administration has announced commitments towards a new biofuels policy. The EPA’s new policy will boost annual biofuels blending quotas. The plan has until Nov 30 to finalize volumes for 2020 and proceed with enacting the new requirements.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.48 1/4, down 4 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.97, down 3 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $4.02 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents

JUL 20 Corn closed at $4.05 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures gained 4 1/2 in Nov contracts on Friday for a 3.77% gain on the week. Soybean meal was up $0.80/ton to $289.80 with soy oil down 1 point to 28.73 at Friday’s close. Beans saw a net short of 8,730 contracts held by the managed money in this afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report. They bought back a net 32,958 contracts in the week ending October 1. IEG Vantage updated their estimated 2019 soybean yield to 46.5 bpa, down 1.9 bpa from last month. Census trade data this morning revealed a record for August exports at 4.931 MMT, or 181.19 mbu. Of the August total 2.68 MMT was to China (489.5 mbu). Soy meal exports were at 939,711 MT, which was just shy of last year’s August record. The census data noted August soy oil exports at 75,109 MT.

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $8.54, up 4 1/2 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $9.30 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $9.40 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.50, up 3 3/4 cents,

OCT 19 Soybean Meal closed at $298.80, up $0.80,

OCT 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.73, down $0.01

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Winter wheat futures end the week mixed; Chicago wheat saw a 0.67% gain over the week and closed up 1 3/4 on Friday while Kansas City wheat lost 0.43% through the week and closed down 1 3/4 cents. MPLS wheat’s weekly change was (2.10%), but closed Friday $0.065 higher. Census data released this morning showed August wheat exports at a 3-year high 2.57 MMT, which is 94.46 mbu. In the weekly CFTC report managed money net shorted wheat futures. Chicago wheat saw a net short of 21,514 contracts which grew the net short from last week by 14.6%. In Kansas City wheat the spec funds were net short 32,780 contracts. MPLS wheat saw a 12,445 contract net short on Tuesday, down 7,084 contracts from the previous week.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.77 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.76 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.36, up 6 1/2 cents

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures for OCT closed at $107.350 which were 55 cents higher, where DEC and FEB contracts were lower. Feeder cattle futures lost 37 to 72 cents going into the weekend. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 68 cents on Oct. 3 at $143.60. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Friday. Choice boxes were down 10 cents to $211.96, with Select boxes 29 cents lower to $186.92. USDA FI slaughter estimated weekly total is 639,000 head including Saturday, up 1,000 head from year ago. Sales throughout the country gravitated towards $107 on Friday, with $4.00 gains in Kansas and $1.00 gains in Texas Panhandle; a few dressed sales of $170 in NE. Census data released this morning showed 261.25 million lbs of beef exports in August. That was down 9.4% from last year and 4.5% lower than July shipments. The Commitment of Traders report released this afternoon showed managed money had flipped their position from net short to net long 5,887 contracts in cattle futures by Tuesday evening.

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $107.350, up $0.550,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $110.775, down $0.050,

FEB 20 Cattle closed at $116.625, down $0.375,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $136.075, down $0.375

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.375, down $0.725

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.700, down $0.550

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures were lower by 2 1/2 cents to 85 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 89 cents to $58.72 on Oct 2. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was lower by 19 cents to $75.17 at Friday’s close. Primal cuts are mixed with ribs up $1.52 and bellies down $2.93. The national average base hog value was $0.12 higher on Friday, up to $49.14. FI weekly total estimated hog slaughter beat the same week last year’s total by 0.8% at 2.669 million head. Census pork exports during August totaled 508.59 million lbs after converting to USDA numbers. That was a record for August but 6.2% lower than July.

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $62.400, down $0.025,

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $67.250, down $0.850

FEB 20 Hogs closed at $74.475, down $0.825

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton gained 1.41% on the week and closed 8 to 17 points higher in nearby contracts on Friday before the weekend. August cotton exports were a 10 year high with 1.034 million bales exported. That was up 26.14% from last year but down 27.7% from July. Export commitments via weekly data show upland cotton at 57% of the USDA projection, ahead of the normal 50% pace. The Cotlook A Index was up 25 points at 71.95 cents/lb for October 3. Thursday’s updated AWP for this week saw a slight gain to 53.36 cents/lb.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 61.76, up 16 points

MAR 20 Cotton closed at 62.53, up 17 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 63.35, up 8 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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