Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher this morning. Heavy snow is expected in the Dakotas and Minnesota late this week, along with a hard freeze. They finished last week with a 3.57% gain, closing 4 cents lower on Friday at $3.85 Dec. The CFTC report showed managed money net short corn by 126,174 contracts, a reduction of 33,716 contracts from the previous week. IEG Vantage (formerly Informa) estimates the US corn yield at 167.5 bpa, down 2.1 bpa from their previous number. One wire survey also puts the trade average guess at 167.5. Census trade data released Friday showed 2.825 MMT (111.22 mbu) of US corn exported during August, which is down 44% from a year ago. They also tallied August ethanol exports at a new record for August at 122.5 million gallons. DDGS exports in August were the largest since August 2018. Trade ideas for corn harvest progress are running 17-18% vs. 27% average for this date. -- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures are fractionally mixed this Monday morning. They gained 4 1/2 in Nov contract on Friday for a 3.77% gain on the week. Soybean meal was up $0.80/ton to $289.80 with soy oil down 1 point to 28.73 at Friday’s close. Beans saw a net short of 8,730 contracts held by the managed money in the Commitment of Traders report. They bought back a net 32,958 contracts in the week ending October 1. IEG Vantage updated their estimated 2019 soybean yield to 46.5 bpa, down 1.9 bpa from last month. Census trade data revealed record August US exports at 4.931 MMT, or 181.19 mbu. Of the August total 2.68 MMT was to China (489.5 mbu). Soy meal exports were at 939,711 MT, which was just shy of last year’s August record. The Census data put August soy oil exports at 75,109 MT. Trade ideas for tonight have US soybean harvest 13-14% complete vs. 34% average for this week. -- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are fractionally mixed this morning, with KC HRW leaning to the bear side and the other two US classes leaning to the bull side. They ended last week mixed. Chicago wheat saw a 0.67% gain over the week and closed up 1 3/4 on Friday while Kansas City wheat lost 0.43% through the week and closed down 1 3/4 cents. MPLS wheat’s weekly change was -2.10%, but closed Friday $0.065 higher. Census data showed August wheat exports at a 3-year high 2.57 MMT, which is 94.46 mbu. In the weekly CFTC report the spec funds were net short 32,780 contracts in the KC HRW contracts. MPLS wheat saw a 12,445 contract net short on Tuesday, down 7,084 contracts from the previous week. ---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures for OCT closed at $107.350 on Friday, up 55 cents, while DEC and FEB contracts were lower. Feeder cattle futures lost 37 to 72 cents going into the weekend. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 68 cents on Oct. 3 at $143.60. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Friday. Choice boxes were down 10 cents to $211.96, with Select boxes 29 cents lower to $186.92. USDA weekly FI slaughter was estimated at 639,000 head including Saturday, up 1,000 head from year ago. Sales throughout the country gravitated towards $107 on Friday, with $4.00 gains in Kansas and $1.00 gains in Texas Panhandle; there were a few dressed sales of $170 in NE. Census data showed 261.25 million lbs of US beef exports in August. That was down 9.4% from last year and 4.5% lower than July shipments. The Commitment of Traders report on Friday afternoon showed managed money had flipped their position from net short to net long 5,887 contracts in cattle futures by Tuesday evening. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures were lower by 2 1/2 cents to 85 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 89 cents to $58.72 on Oct 2. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was lower by 19 cents to $75.17 at Friday’s close. Primal cuts were mixed with ribs up $1.52 and bellies down $2.93. The national average base hog value was $0.12 higher on Friday, up to $49.14. FI weekly total estimated hog slaughter beat the same week last year’s total by 0.8% at 2.669 million head. Census pork exports during August totaled 508.59 million lbs after converting to USDA numbers. That was a record for August but 6.2% lower than July. -- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton is 3 points lower to 3 points higher in a cautious beginning to the trading week. It gained 1.41% last week and closed 8 to 17 points higher in nearby contracts on Friday. August cotton exports were a 10 year high with 1.034 million bales exported. That was up 26.14% from last year but down 27.7% from July. Export commitments via weekly data show upland cotton at 57% of the USDA projection, ahead of the normal 50% pace. The Cotlook A Index was up 25 points at 71.95 cents/lb for October 3. Thursday’s updated AWP saw a slight gain to 53.36 cents/lb. -- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
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