Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are up 1 1/4 to 2 1/4 at midday on Monday. Heavy snow is expected in the Dakotas and Minnesota late this week, along with a hard freeze. Ahead of this afternoons progress report, traders are expecting 17% of US corn harvested, which would be up 6% from last week. This time last year had 24% of corn harvested. Weekly corn exports via USDA’s Export Inspections report were tallied at 466,521 MT for week ending October 3, which is up 44,786 MT from last week. Corn exports were down 67.88% from the same week last year. The MY to date total for corn exports so far is 2.019 MMT which is 65.83% behind last MY’s pace.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.87, up 2 1/4 cents,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.98 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.03 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn is at $4.07 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybeans futures are showing fractional losses. Soybean meal is down $1.20 to 297.60/ton, with soy oil showing 25 point gains to 30.04 cents/lb. Private export sales of 198,000 MT of soybeans to China and 240,000 MT to unknown destinations were announced through USDA’s daily reporting system this morning. China has purchased by unofficial count more than 3.5 MMT of soybeans in the run up to this week’s trade talks in D.C. Soybean exports were reported at 1.039 MMT by USDA for the week ending 10/03. That is a 5.1% increase from last week and is 41.4% more than the same week last year. Soy harvest expectations are around 13% which would be a 6% move over last week, but 22% behind last year’s pace.

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.15 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $9.29 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $9.40 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.49 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

OCT 19 Soybean Meal is at $297.60, down $1.20,

OCT 19 Soybean Oil is at $30.04, up $0.25

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are fractionally higher for Chicago, and fractionally lower in Kansas City wheat. MPLS is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday. USDA reported wheat exports for the week ending 10/03 at 385,259 MT, down 14.07% from this week a year ago. That brings the MY to date total to 8.906 MMT, which is 17% above last MY’s pace through that week. In the weekly CFTC report the spec funds were net short 32,780 contracts in the KC HRW contracts. MPLS wheat saw a 12,445 contract net short on Tuesday, down 7,084 contracts from the previous week. Russia’s IKAR added 0.4 MMT to the country’s wheat production number at 75.4 MMT. USDA (@ 72.5 MMT) will update their projection on Thursday.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.91, up 1/2 cent,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.03 1/2, down 1/2 cent,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.39, up 3 cents

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are up anywhere from a tick to 85 cents Monday, with Feeder cattle futures down $0.17 to $0.80. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 68 cents on Oct. 3 at $143.60. So far on Monday, wholesale boxed beef prices are lower. Choice boxes are down 68 cents to $211.28, with Select boxes $0.32 lower to $186.60. USDA weekly FI slaughter was estimated at 639,000 head last week including Saturday, up 1,000 head from year ago. Sales in the South gravitated towards $107 on Friday, with $4.00 gains on the week. There were a few dressed sales of $170 in NE, with live trade reported at $107-109 by USDA. The Commitment of Traders report on Friday afternoon showed managed money had flipped their position from net short to net long 5,887 contracts in cattle futures by Tuesday evening.

OCT 19 Cattle are at $108.200, up $0.850,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $111.250, up $0.475,

FEB 20 Cattle are at $116.650, up $0.025,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.800, down $0.175

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.175, down $0.200

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $136.900, down $0.800

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are down $1.37 to $2.90 at midday. A total of 93.352 million lbs of pork was shipped to China during August, which was 18.4% of the total shipments. So far this year 427.231 million lbs have been exported to China, which is up 90.9% vs. last year through August. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 51 cents to $59.23 on Oct 3. Monday’s USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $3.26 to $78.43 at midday. Primal cuts are mostly higher with ribs down 18 cents. The national average base hog value was 8 cents lower on Friday, at $49.02. FI weekly total estimated hog slaughter beat the same week last year’s total by 0.8% at 2.669 million head.

OCT 19 Hogs are at $61.025, down $1.375,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $64.325, down $2.925

FEB 20 Hogs are at $71.650, down $2.825

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton Futures are down 12 to 14 points in the nearby contracts, ignoring Oct which expires on Wednesday. USDA will report the progress of the US cotton crop later this afternoon. CFTC data released on Friday showed spec traders at a net short position of 24,795 contracts as of last Tuesday. The Cotlook A Index was up 30 points at 72.25 cents/lb for October 4. The AWP from Thursday is set at 53.36 cents/lb.

DEC 19 Cotton is at 61.55, down 12 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 62.27, down 15 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 63.12, down 14 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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