Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are 1/2 to 1 1/2 cents lower so far this morning. They ended Monday’s session with 2 to 3 cent gains in the front months. The weekly Crop Progress report indicated that collectively the 18 states USDA tracks were 93% dented (99% avg) as of Sunday, with 58% mature (85% avg). NASS also showed harvest in those 18-states 12% below the average at 15% complete. Condition ratings dropped 1% to 56% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 down 2 at 348. Heavy snow is expected in the Dakotas and Minnesota late this week, along with a hard freeze. Weekly corn exports via USDA’s Export Inspections report were tallied at 466,521 MT for week ending October 3, which is up 44,786 MT from last week. The MY to date total for corn exports so far is 2.019 MMT (~79 mbu) which is 65.83% behind last MY’s pace (232 mbu). Two years ago Brazil had a drought, last year they didn’t.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybeans futures are trading 3 cents per bushel lower after ending Monday 1/4 to 1 cent lower in the nearby contracts. Soybean meal was also lower, down $1.40 to $297.40/ton. Soy oil was up 22. The USDA weekly crop progress report showed that the 18 states have 72% of the soybean crop dropping leaves, 15% behind normal. NASS also reported the crop was 14% harvested, well shy of the 34% average. Condition ratings slipped 2% to 53% gd/ex, as the Brugler500 dropped 6 points to 342. That is the lowest rating this year and at a 7-year low for week 40. Soybean export inspections were 1.039 MMT for the week ending 10/03. That is a 5.1% increase from last week and is 41.4% more than the same week last year.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures start Tuesday with Chicago and KC futures down 2 1/2 cents and MPLS spring wheat fractionally to a penny higher. Yesterday saw Chicago and Kansas City wheat 1 to 2 cents lower, and 2 1/2 cent gains for MPLS. Egypt’s GASC is tendering for wheat for mid-November delivery, with results expected later today. US is still uncompetitive into that market due to freight costs. US Spring wheat was 91% harvested according to the Crop Progress report, advancing just 1% on the week. Winter wheat was 52% planted, as compared to last week’s 39% and the 53% average, with 26% of the crop emerged. USDA reported wheat exports for the week ending 10/03 at 385,259 MT. That brings the MY to date total to 8.906 MMT, which is 17% above last MY’s pace through that week.

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were mixed at Monday’s close with 90 cent gains in Oct and 22.5 cent losses for Feb. Feeder cattle futures were $0.275 to $1.30 lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 84 cents on Oct. 4 at $144.43. Wholesale boxed beef were lower on Monday widening the spread at $25.18. Choice boxes are down 87 cents to $211.09 and Select boxes $1.01 lower to $185.91. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for Monday at 116,000 head, up 2,000 head from last year but down 1,000 head from last Monday. Initial enthusiasm about the Japan trade deal is being tempered by the fact that the lower tariffs won't become effective until year end.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were down $1.90 in Oct and had December limit down on Monday. We will see expanded limits of $4.50 for Tuesday. A total of 93.352 million lbs of pork was shipped to China during August, which was 18.4% of the total shipments. So far this year 427.231 million lbs of US pork have been exported to China, which is up 90.9% vs. last year through August. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 51 cents to $59.23 on Oct 3. Monday’s USDA pork carcass cutout value closed Monday $2.58 higher at $77.75. Primal cuts were mostly higher with ribs down 39 cents. The national average base hog value was 8 cents lower on Friday, at $49.02. FI hog slaughter for Monday was estimated at 489,000 head by the USDA, even with last week and 16,000 head above the same day a year ago.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are following Monday’s 10 to 13 point gains in the nearby contracts with 92 to 103 point losses on Tuesday morning. USDA reported 83% of the US cotton crop had bolls opening by Sunday. Harvest was pegged at 25% complete, ahead of the 20% normal pace. Condition rating were down 1% to 39% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index indicating a 323 score for the 15 states, UNCH from last week. The Cotlook A Index was up 30 points at 72.25 cents/lb for October 4. The AWP is 53.36 cents/lb., effective through Thursday.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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