Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed the Tuesday session with the nearby contracts 6 to 8 3/4 cents higher. Dec hit the highest price since mid-August on Tuesday. Heavy snow is expected in the Dakotas and Minnesota late this week. Weekly Crop Progress data indicated that those three states showed much of the crop still exposed to losses, with 61% of the crop in MN not yet to black layer. The Dakotas have 78% (ND) and 64% (SD) of corn yet to mature. Those states account for 17.67% of the 2019 planted acreage. Freezing temps are also seen dipping down to parts of Northern TX, but staying concentrated in the Plains and WCB. Traders are expecting the USDA October yield projection on Thursday to drop 0.7 bpa to 167.5 bpa with a range of 159-169 bpa. With that yield reduction and an estimated 0.5 million acre cut to harvested acreage, analysts expect production to drop on average by 211 mbu to 13.88 bbu. Any freeze damage this week would be calculated in future reports.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.95 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $4.06 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $4.11 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn closed at $4.14 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures saw 5 to 6 1/2 cent gains in the front months, with Nov showing the highest trade since July 19th. Soybean meal was up $4.90/ton, with soy oil 24 points lower. Roughly 21% of the US planted soybean acreage for 2019 is in the Dakotas and MN, with some areas expected to see 8-16 inches of snow. Any crop losses will likely be reflected in the November Crop Production report. Ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report traders are expecting a slight yield (0.6 bpa) reduction from USDA’s September projection to 47.3 bpa. Production estimates are seen dropping 50 mbu from last month to 3.583 bbu.

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.20 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $9.35 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $9.47, up 6 1/2 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.56 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

OCT 19 Soybean Meal closed at $302.30, up $4.90,

OCT 19 Soybean Oil closed at $29.77, down $0.24

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures posted 9 to 11 cent gains in Chicago, with KC HRW up 7 to 8 cents in most contracts. That extended the CBT-KC wheat spread to 90 cents. The market wants you to feed that HRW. MPLS was up 4 to 5 1/2 cents on the day. Concerns lingered over the forecasted snowstorm, as there is still 9% of the spring crop left in the fields. However, that means 91% is safe in storage. Trade expectations ahead of the monthly WASDE report show 1.011 bbu in 19/20 US wheat ending stocks. That would be down just 3 mbu from the Sep report. Egypt’s GASC purchased 295,000 MT of Russian (180,000 MT) and Ukrainian (115,000 MT) in Tuesday’s tender for mid-November delivery.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.00 ¼, up 11 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.10 1/4, up 8 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.43 1/2, up 5 cents

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures ended the Tuesday session with the front months 7.5 to 35 cents lower, as deferred contracts were up 20 to 35 cents. Feeder cattle futures were up 15 to 35 cents in the nearby contracts. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 84 cents on Oct. 4 at $144.43. Wholesale boxed beef were sharply higher on Tuesday, widening the spread to $26.54. Choice boxes were up $2.51 to $213.60 and Select boxes $1.15 higher at $187.06. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter WTD through Tuesday at 233,000 head, down 1,000 head from last year a week ago. A total of 666 head are consigned for Wednesday’s FCE online auction.

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $108.175, down $0.075,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $110.850, down $0.350,

FEB 20 Cattle closed at $116.700, up $0.300,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.025, up $0.325

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.250, up $0.325

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $136.750, up $0.350

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures posted a triple digit bounce on Turnaround Tuesday, with Dec up $3.15. We will revert back to the usual $3 limits for Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down a penny to $59.22 on Oct 4. The USDA pork carcass cutout value for Tuesday was 30 cents lower at $77.45 in the afternoon report. The national average base hog value was up $2.28 on Tuesday, at $52.01. FI hog slaughter for this week through Tuesday was estimated at 973,000 head by the USDA. That is down 6,000 head from last week as Monday’s kill was revised 5,000 head lower but is still 48,000 head above last year.

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $61.700, up $1.200,

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $67.400, up $3.150

FEB 20 Hogs closed at $73.600, up $2.125

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures settled with 51 to 62 point losses in the front months on Tuesday. The market removed “China deal” premium after the US added more Chinese companies and state bureaus to a restriction list due to treatment of the Uighur minority in western China (or other factors). This move came as trade negotiations are underway in Washington DC, with the higher-level officials talking on Thursday and Friday. Crop Progress data showed 77% of the bolls open in TX (65% avg), with harvest at 25%. The Cotlook A Index was unch at 72.25 cents/lb for October 7. The AWP is 53.36 cents/lb, effective through Thursday.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 61.3, down 53 points

MAR 20 Cotton closed at 62.06, down 51 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 62.81, down 62 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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