Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading fractionally higher this morning. They closed 6 to 8 3/4 cents higher on Tuesday. Dec hit the highest price since mid-August yesterday. Heavy snow is expected in the Dakotas and Minnesota late this week. Weekly Crop Progress data indicated 61% of the crop in MN not yet to black layer. The Dakotas have 78% (ND) and 64% (SD) of corn yet to mature. Those states account for 17.67% of the 2019 planted acreage. Traders are expecting the USDA October yield projection on Thursday to drop 0.7 bpa to 167.5 bpa with a range of estimates from 159-169 bpa. With that assumed yield reduction and an estimated 0.5 million acre cut to harvested acreage, analysts expect production to drop on average by 211 mbu to 13.88 bbu. Any freeze damage this week or next week would be calculated in future reports.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures are 8 to 10 cents per bushel higher this morning. They saw 5 to 6 1/2 cent gains in the front months yesterday, with Nov showing the highest trade since July 19th. Soybean meal was up $4.90/ton, with soy oil 24 points lower. Roughly 21% of the US planted soybean acreage for 2019 is in the Dakotas and MN, with some areas expected to see 8-16 inches of snow. Any crop losses will likely be reflected in the November Crop Production report. Ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report traders are expecting a slight yield (0.6 bpa) reduction from USDA’s September projection to 47.3 bpa. Production on average is seen dropping 50 mbu from last month to 3.583 bbu.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are steady to 2 cents lower in the Chicago contracts, but 1 to 2 cents higher in the KC and MPLS hard wheat futures. They posted 9 to 11 cent gains in Chicago yesterday, with KC HRW up 7 to 8 cents in most contracts. That extended the CBT-KC wheat spread to 90 cents. The market wants you to feed that HRW. MPLS was up 4 to 5 1/2 cents on the day. Concerns lingered over the forecasted snowstorm, as 9% of the spring crop was still in the fields as of Sunday. However, that also means 91% is safe in storage. Trade expectations ahead of the monthly WASDE report show 1.011 bbu for 19/20 US wheat ending stocks. That would be down just 3 mbu from the Sep report. Egypt’s GASC purchased 295,000 MT of Russian (180,000 MT) and Ukrainian (115,000 MT) in Tuesday’s tender for mid-November delivery.

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures ended the Tuesday session with the front months 7.5 to 35 cents lower, as deferred contracts were up 20 to 35 cents. Feeder cattle futures were up 15 to 35 cents in the nearby contracts. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 84 cents on Oct. 4 at $144.43. Wholesale boxed beef were sharply higher on Tuesday, widening the spread to $26.54. Choice boxes were up $2.51 to $213.60 and Select boxes $1.15 higher at $187.06. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter WTD through Tuesday at 233,000 head, down 1,000 head from last year a week ago. A total of 666 head are consigned for Wednesday’s FCE online auction.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures posted a triple digit bounce on Turnaround Tuesday, with Dec up $3.15. We will revert back to the usual $3 limits today. The CME Lean Hog Index was down a penny to $59.22 on Oct 4. The USDA pork carcass cutout value for Tuesday was 30 cents lower at $77.45 in the afternoon report. The national average base hog value was up $2.28 on Tuesday, at $52.01. FI hog slaughter for this week through Tuesday was estimated at 973,000 head by the USDA. That is down 6,000 head from last week as Monday’s kill was revised 5,000 head lower but is still 48,000 head above last year.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are trading 77 to 102 higher this morning. They settled with 51 to 62 point losses in the front months on Tuesday. The market removed “China deal” premium as both sides are downplaying the possibility of a deal. Talks are ongoing in Washington, with higher level players like China’s Liu He and USTR Lighthizer joining the fray on Thursday. Crop Progress data showed 77% of the bolls open in TX (65% avg), with harvest at 25%. The Cotlook A Index was unch at 72.25 cents/lb for October 7. The AWP is 53.36 cents/lb, effective through Thursday.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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