Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are lower so far Wednesday, steady to 2 cents lower in the nearby contracts. Dec hit the highest price since mid-August yesterday. The EIA weekly report showed another round of low production data at 963,000 barrels per day for the week of 10/4, up 5,000 bpd from last week. Ethanol stocks were at a 2-year low at 21.224 million barrels, down 1.995 million barrels from last week. That is the largest wk/wk draw down on record. With corn production estimates expected to be revised 211 mbu lower and a lower carry-in from old crop, analysts project a 508 mbu cut to 19/20 ending stocks to 1.682 bbu. Forecasts still call for hard and soft freezes for many Midwest states, with approximately 8.64% of the total corn crop still exposed to potential frost damage. These potential losses will not be reflected in tomorrow’s WASDE, overall. Ahead of the weekly Export Sales report, analysts estimate 500,000-800,000 MT in 19/20 corn bookings.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.93 3/4, down 2 cents,

MAR 19 Corn is at $4.04 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.10, down 1 1/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn is at $4.14, down 1/2 cent

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybeans futures are seeing gains at midday up 3 1/2 to 3 3/4. Soybean meal is up $3.90/ton, with soy oil 17 points lower. China’s Vice Premier is starting his meetings with U.S. officials tomorrow, attempting to de-scale tariff hikes scheduled for Oct 15th. According to a Financial Times report from Beijing, China is expected to offer to buy more U.S. ag products, boosting soybean purchases to 30 MMT. That would be in line with where we were pre-Trade War. No word on what they want the US to give up in return. On average, traders expect a cut in the US soybean carryout in Thursday’s monthly report, with estimates suggesting a 144 mbu drop for 19/20 ending stocks. Weekly Export Sales data on Thursday is expected to show 1.3-1.8 MMT in soybean export sales during the week of 10/3. Soy meal is seen at 100,000-300,000 MT, with Soy oil at 5,000-35,000 MT.

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.24 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $9.38 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $9.50 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.60 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

OCT 19 Soybean Meal is at $306.20, up $3.90,

OCT 19 Soybean Oil is at $29.60, down $0.17

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management




Wheat futures are steady to 2 cents lower for Chicago wheat, with Kansas City firm to two cents higher. MPLS wheat is fractionally lower for the nearby contracts. Trade estimates show wheat ending stocks for 19/20 at 1.011 bbu, just a 3 mbu reduction from Sep if realized. World carryout is seen at being trimmed by 1.34 MMT to 285.17 MMT in Thursday’s WASDE update. Analysts are expecting a total of 300,000-600,000 MT in US wheat export sales for the week that ended on October 3. In a tender closing on Thursday, Japan’s MOA is seeking a total of 114,012 MT from the US and Canada, with 60,052 MT US specific.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.00, down 1/4 cent,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.12 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.42 1/2, down 1 cent

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures see 47 to 90 cent gains so far Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures are higher Wednesday by $2.42 to $3.95. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down 2 cents on Oct. 7 at $144.41. Wholesale boxed beef sees another widening of choice/select spread so far this Wednesday, currently to $28.30. Choice boxes were up 86 cents to $214.46 and Select boxes down 90 cents to $186.16. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter WTD through Tuesday at 233,000 head, down 1,000 head from last year a week ago. Wednesday’s FCE online auction saw no sales on the 666 head offered, with asks ranging from $108-109. Outside of that bids of $105 have been reported, with $110 asks.

OCT 19 Cattle are at $108.750, up $0.575,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $111.750, up $0.900,

FEB 20 Cattle are at $117.775, up $1.075,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.175, up $3.150

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.200, up $3.950

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $140.250, up $3.500

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are up $0.70 to $2.25 at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index rose $0.37 to $59.59 on Oct 7. The USDA pork carcass cutout value dropped $2.03 at Wednesday’s midday, to $75.42. Primal cuts were mostly down at midday with butt gaining $1.09 and ham seeing $0.73 increases. The national average base hog value was up 35 cents on Wednesday, at $52.59. FI hog slaughter for this week through Tuesday was estimated at 973,000 head by the USDA. That is down 6,000 head from last week as Monday’s kill was revised 5,000 head lower but is still 48,000 head above last year.

OCT 19 Hogs are at $62.400, up $0.700,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $69.375, up $1.975

FEB 20 Hogs are at $75.525, up $1.925

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are up $0.70 to $2.25 at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index rose $0.37 to $59.59 on Oct 7. The USDA pork carcass cutout value dropped $2.03 at Wednesday’s midday, to $75.42. Primal cuts were mostly down at midday with butt gaining $1.09 and ham seeing $0.73 increases. The national average base hog value was up 35 cents on Wednesday, at $52.59. FI hog slaughter for this week through Tuesday was estimated at 973,000 head by the USDA. That is down 6,000 head from last week as Monday’s kill was revised 5,000 head lower but is still 48,000 head above last year.

OCT 19 Hogs are at $62.400, up $0.700,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $69.375, up $1.975

FEB 20 Hogs are at $75.525, up $1.925

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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