Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures saw marginal losses in nearby contracts ahead of Thursday’s reports. The EIA weekly report showed another round of low production data at 963,000 barrels per day for the week of 10/4, up 5,000 bpd from last week. Ethanol stocks were at a 2-year low, 21.224 million barrels, down 1.995 million barrels from last week. That is the largest wk/wk draw down on record. With corn production estimates expected to be revised lower and a smaller carry-in from old crop, analysts project a 508 mbu cut to 19/20 ending stocks at 1.682 bbu. World stocks are seen down 9.67 MMT from Sept at 296.6 MMT. Ahead of the weekly Export Sales report, analysts estimate 500,000-800,000 MT in 19/20 corn bookings.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.94 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $4.05 1/2, down 1 cent,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $4.10 3/4, down 1/2 cent

JUL 20 Corn closed at $4.14 1/2, unch

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures closed Wednesday with 2 3/4 to 3 1/4 cent gains in the nearby contracts. Soybean meal was up $3.10/ton, with soy oil 14 points lower at the close. China was reported to offer to buy more U.S. ag products, boosting annual soybean purchases to 30 MMT according to rumors. That would be in line with where we were pre-Trade War. No word on what they want the US to give up in return. On average, traders expect a cut in the US soybean carryout in Thursday’s monthly report, with estimates suggesting a 144 mbu drop for 19/20 ending stocks. The average trade estimate for World carryout is 96.46 MMT, which would be a 2.73 MMT reduction from Sep. Weekly Export Sales data on Thursday is expected to show 1.3-1.8 MMT in soybean export sales during the week of 10/3. Soy meal is seen at 100,000-300,000 MT, with Soy oil at 5,000-35,000 MT.

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.23 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $9.38, up 2 3/4 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $9.49 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.59 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents,

OCT 19 Soybean Meal closed at $305.40, up $3.10,

OCT 19 Soybean Oil closed at $29.63, down $0.14

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Mixed on Wednesday

Wheat futures closed Wednesday mixed, with Chicago wheat futures steady to fractionally higher in most contracts. Kansas City contracts saw 1-3 cent gains, as Spring wheat futures contracts saw losses at Wednesday’s close. Trade estimates prior to USDA’s monthly update show World carryout as being trimmed by 1.34 MMT to 285.17 MMT on average. Analysts are expecting a total of 300,000-600,000 MT in US wheat export sales for the week that ended on October 3. In a tender closing on Thursday, Japan’s MOA is seeking a total of 114,012 MT from the US and Canada, with 60,052 MT US specific.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.00 1/4, unch,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.13 1/4, up 3 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.41 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were up as much as 60 cents at Wednesday’s close. Feeder cattle futures gained $2.475 to $3.00 in the nearby contracts. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 4 cents on Oct. 8 to $144.45. Wholesale boxed beef saw another widening of choice/select spread Wednesday, at an unseasonably high $28.48. That is the widest the spread has been since June of 2017. Choice boxes were gained $1.00 to $214.60 and Select boxes dropped $0.94 to $186.12. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter WTD through Wednesday at 350,0000 head, on pace with last week but down 4,000 head from last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction saw no sales on the 666 head offered, with asks ranging from $108-109. Outside of that bids of $105 have been reported, with $110 asks.

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $108.475, up $0.300,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $111.175, up $0.325,

FEB 20 Cattle closed at $117.300, up $0.600,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.500, up $2.475

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.250, up $3.000

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.525, up $2.775

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures saw $1.10 to $2.35 gains in the front months on Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog Index rose $0.37 to $59.59 on Oct 7. The USDA pork carcass cutout value dropped $1.44 to close Wednesday at $76.01. Primal cuts are mixed and we see ribs made a rebound since being lower at middays. The national average base hog value saw $1.65 gains on Wednesday, up to $53.90. FI hog slaughter for this week through Wednesday was 1.463 million head. That is down 71,000 head above last year’s weekly pace, even with Monday’s kill revised 5,000 head lower.

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $62.800, up $1.10,

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $69.475, up $2.075,

FEB 20 Hogs closed at $75.950, up $2.35,

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures closed Wednesday with 72 to 78 points gains in the front months. Talks are ongoing in Washington, with higher level players like China’s Liu He and USTR Lighthizer joining the fray on Thursday. Lui He will meet with President Trump Friday if talks tomorrow go as planned. Traders are also awaiting production updates from NASS on Thursday at 11 AM CDT. The Cotlook A Index remained 72.25 cents/lb for October 8. The AWP is 53.36 cents/lb and will be updated on Thursday.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 62.1, up 78 points

MAR 20 Cotton closed at 62.82, up 79 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 63.47, up 72 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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