Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures fell by 3 to 4 cents on Wednesday. The EIA weekly report showed that ethanol production remained above 1 million bpd, at 1,014 mil bpd for the week ending 11/1. Stocks were reported at 21.874 million barrels, a build of 3.7% for the week. Traders are estimating Thursday’s USDA corn weekly export sales to range from 300,000 MT to 650,000 MT for the week ending 10/31. South Korean firms purchased 201,000 MT of corn for February delivery, optional origin. The average analyst estimation for the USDA report on Friday calls for global ending stocks of corn to be at 300.31 MMT.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.78 3/4, down 3 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.87 3/4, down 4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.94 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn closed at $4.00 3/4, down 4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Nearby soybean futures closed Wednesday lower by as much as 6 3/4 cents. Soybean meal also finished lower on the day, by $3.80/ton. Soybean oil,on the other hand, did gain 18 points on Wednesday. Soybean basis was -0.6242 for the last week of October after climbing steadily through the month, but through the first week of November the basis has dropped to average -0.70 so far. Last year the average through the first week of November was -1.02. Trade estimates for soybean export sales for the week ending on 10/31 range from 600,000 – 1.2 MMT. Soybean meal is expected to see export sales between 150,000 - 300,000 MT for the same week. Traders are anticipating tomorrow’s USDA weekly report to indicate soybean oil export sales from 5,000-25,000 MT.

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.15, down 6 3/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $9.27 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $9.40 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.52 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $298.90, down $3.80,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $31.75, up $0.18

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Nearby Wheat futures closed mixed at the midweek point. SRW wheat finished Wednesday with gains from 1/2 a cent to 1 1/2 cents. HRW wheat finished lower by 3/4 to 3 cents. The biggest mover was with HRS futures, which were lower by as much as 3 1/2 after Wednesday’s closing bell. The EU has raised their 2019/20 wheat crop production estimate to 147.0 MMT, up from their previous 145 MMT estimate. The EU also adjusted their wheat export expectations to 26 MMT. Russian winter wheat planting is well under way and the country released their initial 2020/21 MY production estimates, at 79.733 MMT. FAS Moscow, per the USDA ag attaché, said 19/20 MY Russian wheat production is forecasted at 74MMT. Analysts anticipate world ending stocks of 287.03 MMT from the USDA on Friday.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.16 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.27 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.23 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were mixed again at Wednesday’s close, with a 45 cent loss for nearby Dec contracts. Nearby feeder cattle futures were lower by $1.05 to $1.35. Beef exports to China were at an all time high for the month of September, shipping 3 million lbs for the month, still a drop in the bucket! The 11/04 CME Feeder Cattle index was down $0.21 to $146.24. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher for Wednesday, narrowing the Chc/Sel spread back to $25.61. Choice boxes posted a gain of 68 cents, and select boxes finished higher by $1.71. Wednesday’s FCE online auction had no completed trades. NE and KS cattle were listed at $117, while TX had 146 head for $113. Feedlots passed on packer bids. The USDA estimated cattle slaughter is ahead of last week’s pace, with a running weekly total of 352,000 head through Wednesday.

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $119.000, down $0.450,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $124.700, up $0.025,

APR 20 Cattle closed at $125.650, down $0.175,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.800, down $1.050

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.425, down $1.350

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.975, down $1.225

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures rallied back in the afternoon, but it wasn’t enough to take back early losses, they finish the day down by as much as $2.50 in nearby contracts. Of the 465.0 Million lbs of September pork exports in the Census data, 14.53% went to China. China has received 539.806 million lbs of U.S. pork already this year, which is 37.84% higher than 2018’s entire yearly total, with 3 months to add more. We expect China to double 2018’s pork export total for 2019. China’s state owned COFCO has signed a deal to import $100 million worth of pork from Danish Crown by 2020. The Nov. 4 CME Lean Hog Index was lower by 52 cents, at $60.36. Wednesday’s pork carcass cutout value from USDA gained back $1.44, since being lower at midday. Ribs lost $2.17 on the day, but the other primal cuts were higher. The national average base hog price was 45.15 at the end of Wednesday’s session, after falling another $0.80. Wednesday’s week to date USDA estimated Hog slaughter was 1.474 million head, outpacing last week by 19,000 head.

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $64.775, down $2.500,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $72.775, down $0.975

APR 20 Hogs closed at $79.375, down $0.600

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wednesday cotton futures were mostly lower in the nearby contracts after Wednesday’s session. Jul contracts made an 8 point climb, but the closer nearbys were lower by 9 to 27 points. The accumulated online sales, as per the Seam, are up to 6,518 bales as of 11/5. Last week’s total sold was 17,146 bales, at an average pace of 2,449 bales per day. The Cotlook A Index for 11/5 had decreased by 35 points, to 74.70 cents/lb. The AWP will be updated tomorrow afternoon, it was last adjusted upwards by 22 points and has been 57.33 cents/lb since 10/31.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 63.64, down 17 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 65.2, down 27 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 66.4, down 9 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 67.53, up 8 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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