Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are following Turkey Day with steady hikes in nearby futures, with midday gains ranging from 5 1/4 to 7 3/4 cents. Trade ideas for this morning’s USDA weekly Export Sales report were 400,000 to 900,000 MT, and the data was at the high end with 806,751 of net sales for the week ending 11/21. That was 2.4% more than last week, but was only 63.7% of week 12 last MY. The total commitments through the first 12weeks are now at 14.069 MMT, which is 44.08% behind last year’s pace. The report also pegged shipments at 635,334 MT for the week, which was a 6% decrease wk/wk and 39.68% below the same week last year. There were zero delivery notices against December corn on first notice day. The oldest long is dated 5/17/19. CFTC Commitment of Traders data is not expected until Monday.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.70 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.80, up 6 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $3.84 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn is at $3.89 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Friday soybean futures are lower by as much as 2 3/4 cents at midday. Soybean meal is trading $2.30 /ton lower, and bean oil is making a 24 point rally at midday. Soybean export sales from this morning’s report exceeded trader expectations, with 1.664 MT sold the week ending 11/21. Those sales were 14.1% above last week, and pushed the MY accumulated commitments (shipped and unshipped sales) up to 25.260 MMT, which was a 9.5% ahead of last year’s pace. The accumulated shipments for soybeans through the first 12 weeks are at 14.490 MMT, 7.42% behind the 10 year average for week 12 but a 23.5% improvement over last year. The weekly soybean shipments, according to the report, were at 2.245 MMT , which is the highest for a week since early November 2017. Meal sales were below expectations this morning, with a mere 93,165 MT sold for the week ending 11/21, which was the lowest weekly sales since the summer slump. Soybean oil had 14,865 MT of sales through the week ending 11/21. There were 319 delivery notices against December soybean meal, with most stopped by a JPM client. The monthly oilseed crush report will be released on Monday, with expectations ranging from at 186.1 mbu; if realized, that would be an all time monthly record.

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $8.79 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans are at $8.93 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.08 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

JUL 20 Soybeans are at $9.20 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal is at $291.50, down $2.30,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil is at $30.61, up $0.24

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Friday wheat futures are making a midday rally, with Chicago wheat leading the charge on the shortened trading session. Chicago wheat is 12 to 18 3/4 cents higher so far, with KC wheat directly behind, gaining 7 1/4 to 10 1/2 cents at midday. MPLS wheat is also on the rise, with midday gains as much as 5 1/2 cents. The Chicago/KC wheat premium at $1.12 3/4 is the highest on record, back to ‘04. Chicago futures also hold a premium to MPLS wheat futures, of 54 3/4 cents, with the highest spread favoring Chicago since September 2007. There were zero delivery notices against December CHI wheat on first notice day. There were 11 contracts put out against KC December and 343 put out in MPLS. Weekly Export Sales data showed sales above trade estimates of 300,000-600,000 MT. A total 612,655 MT sold on the week ending 11/21 the third largest sale this MY. The total MY export commitments are up to 16.4277 MMT, which is 8.97% above last year’s pace. With 27 weeks left in the MY, accumulated export shipments for all wheat is up to 12.150 MMT which is 26.60% more than the same time last MY, which ended at 24.232 MMT. The European Commission released an updated 19/20 estimate of EU wheat production, showing a reduction to 146.8 MMT.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.46 3/4, up 18 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.34, up 7 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $4.92, up 3 1/2 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures lower by 15 to 60 cents on the shortened session. Feeder cattle futures are 87 cents to $1.20 lower so far. The 11/26 CME Feeder Cattle index was $145.02 after a 33 cent bump. Weekly export sales data from the USDA this morning showed beef sales were 26,673 MT for the week ending 11/21. That’s a 25.87% increase wk/wk and 147.2% above the same week last year (which was shortened due to the Thanksgiving). Accumulated exports from the same report revealed that 737,315 MT of beef have been shipped this year, that is 4.03% behind last years’s pace. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Wednesday. Choice boxes were $0.40 higher, and select boxes dropped by $1.65. The USDA has reported minimal cash sales activity, with KS reporting some $118 activity later Wednesday afternoon. USDA estimated the FI cattle slaughter weekly total to be 341,000 head through Wednesday. The shortened week is 12,000 head behind last week’s total as well as 15,000 head behind the same Wednesday last year.

DEC 19 Cattle are at $121.275, down $0.150,

FEB 19 Cattle are at $126.150, down $0.550,

APR 20 Cattle are at $126.275, down $0.600,

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.125, down $1.200

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.875, down $1.050

APR 19 Feeder Cattle are at $144.750, down $0.875

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures follow up Thanksgiving Holiday with triple digit rally on Black Friday, futures are as much as $1.87 higher at midday. The USDA released their weekly export sales data to reveal that for the week ending 11/21 there were 50,465 MT sold. That comes as a 44.4% decrease over last week, but pushes the total commits to 1.674 MMT, which is 43.7% ahead of last year’s pace. With 6 weeks still left in the year to add to the accumulated net sales, pork commitments are already the highest they’ve ever been for a single year. The accumulated shipments according to the report are now at1.415 MMT which is also a record on the data available with still more weeks to add to it as well. The 11/25 CME Lean Hog Index was $57.88 after a 30 cent decrease. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was again lower, at $79.80 following a $2.28 drop. The pork belly primals were marked at $94.87, after a $14.57 per hundredweight drop. USDA’s national average base hog price for 11/27 was $42.80, for a 35 cent gain. USDA estimates FI hog slaughter for the shortened week to be 1.465 million head through Wednesday.

DEC 19 Hogs are at $62.175, up $1.500,

FEB 19 Hogs are at $69.025, up $1.875

APR 20 Hogs are at $75.275, up $1.650

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures cotton is lower on Friday, following the holiday with drops of 40 to 111 points so far. The 11/28 Cotlook A Index remained unchanged at 75.10 cents/lb. Cert stocks continue to rise, providing liquidity for December futures deliveries. There were 83,666 bales available for delivery on Wednesday. USDA weekly export sales data revealed that there was a 23.69% increase in sales wk/wk for the week ending 11/21. The 281,514 running bales sold was the second largest for the marketing year after 11/07’s weekly sales of 345,079 bales.

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.8, down 111 points,

MAR 19 Cotton is at 65.31, down 50 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 66.41, down 50 points

JUL 20 Cotton is at 67.23, down 40 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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