Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are seeing early gains, with nearby futures up 1 to 2 1/2 cents so far on Monday. Preliminary open interest showed short covering in the December contract on Friday, but net new buying in March. Open interest rose 6,581 contracts overall. There were again zero delivery notices against December corn. Export Inspections for corn were again below last year, with the weekly report showing 428,856 MT shipped for the week ending 11/28. That is a 30.38% drop vs. last week and is less than half of the same week last year’s shipments. The accumulated MY shipments are now 6.039 MMT; as compare to last year where we were 14.230 MMT shipped at this point in the MY. Sorghum exports continue to outpace last year, with the latest export inspection showing accumulated shipments are 65.63% above last year’s pace.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.73 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.82 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $3.87 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents

JUL 20 Corn is at $3.91 1/4, up 1 cent

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are 3 3/4 to 5 1/2 cents lower on Cyber Monday. Preliminary open interest rose 11,079 contracts Friday on net new selling interest. Soybean meal is up $1.20/ton, and bean oil is down 46 points. Bunge hit the soy oil market with big deliveries (1,270 contracts) over the weekend. JPM clients were the biggest stoppers. The USDA’s weekly export inspections showed that, for the week ending 11/28, there were 1.548 MMT of beans shipped. Last week was 1.952 MMT, and the same week last year saw only 1.046 MMT shipped. The accumulated shipments were updated to 15.942 MMT as compared to the same point last year when we had shipped 13.258 MMT. The USDA report showed that of the weekly shipments, 1.090 MMT (70.46%) were destined for China. The accumulated data from the EU regarding soybean imports has been updated to 5.1 MMT through Dec 1st, that is a 1% increase over last year. The monthly oilseed crush report will be released by USDA this afternoon, with the average trade expectation at 186.1 mbu. If realized, that would be an all time monthly record crush use.

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $8.71 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans are at $8.86 1/4, down 5 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.01 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

JUL 20 Soybeans are at $9.14 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal is at $292.10, up $1.20,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil is at $29.96, down $0.46

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are mostly lower far, with Chicago SRW leading the way down. Chicago futures are 2 to 5 1/2 cents lower. KC HRW wheat is mixed so far, with nearby Dec futures gaining slightly, and the remainder of the nearbys dropping as much as 7 1/2 cents. MPLS HRS wheat futures are 1 3/4 to 4 cents lower in the front months. Preliminary open interest showed net new buying in Chicago on Friday, with OI rising 6,587 contracts. There were again zero deliveries against Chicago December wheat, with the oldest long now 8/30/19. The 11 KC deliveries were all put back out. Wheat Export Inspections dropped to 246,988 MT for the week ending 11/28. The previous report showed 434,703 MT, and the same week last year was 48.08% higher at 475,745 MT. The accumulated wheat shipments are up to 12.615, which is 19.21% above last year’s pace. ABARES cut Australian wheat production for 19/20 by 18% to 15.85 MMT. EU official exports or the local MY (starting July 1) have shipped 11.1 MMT of wheat, a 58% increase yr/yr so far.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.44 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.40 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $4.92 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are down by as much as 57 cents at midday, with futures lower by 32 to 57 cents so far. Feeder cattle futures are also lower at midday, with futures showing losses ranging from 55 to 72 cents. The 11/28 CME Feeder Cattle index was up 40 cents at $145.11.. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher, but widened the Chc/Sel spread. Choice boxes were $1.97 higher, and select boxes were up by $0.40. Cash cattle activity was firmer at $117-120 last week. USDA estimated the FI cattle slaughter total so far through the year is 30.344 million head, which was 324,000 head above last year.

DEC 19 Cattle are at $120.750, down $0.450,

FEB 19 Cattle are at $125.625, down $0.575,

APR 20 Cattle are at $126.050, down $0.325,

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.550, down $0.725

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.475, down $0.550

APR 19 Feeder Cattle are at $144.300, down $0.675

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures are down by as much as $2.05 so far in the nearby contracts. The 11/27 CME Lean Hog Index was $58.35 after a drop of 25 cents. 11/29 CME Fresh Bacon Index was at $139.58 following a 14.31% weekly drop. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was higher on Cyber Monday, with a $2.13 gain up to $83.98, with rib cuts being the biggest movers, having gained $10.33. USDA’s national average base hog price for 12/02 was $1.09 higher at $43.89. According to EuroStat, September pork exports from the EU were 37% higher yr/yr, riding on a monthly boom of exports to China, with UK’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board stating that Chinese pork purchases through September had more than doubled over last year and accounted for 58.5% of the of EU’s monthly pork exports. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for last week’s holiday shortened week at 2.343 million head.

DEC 19 Hogs are at $60.750, down $1.275,

FEB 19 Hogs are at $66.125, down $2.050

APR 20 Hogs are at $72.550, down $1.375

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are making 12 point gains in the near expiration Dec contracts as well as the Jul futures, however the Mar and May futures are modestly lower at midday. The National Weather Services’ accumulated precipitation forecast shows that the next week could again see some light precip in much of the cotton area. East Texas is forecasted to accumulate a tenth of an inch of rain with the precipitation stretching to middle Georgia where they are also forecasted a tenth of an inch accumulated. The center of the precip is along the Mississippi River boarder between AR, LA, and MS, where the wetness could accumulate to over an inch. The 11/29 Cotlook A Index was brought to an even 75 cents per pound, after a slight 10 point drop. The monthy Cotton System utilization report from the NASS branch of the USDA will be released later this afternoon. The AWP from Friday was 56.20 cents /lb, and is good through Thursday.

DEC 19 Cotton is at 64.52, up 12 points,

MAR 19 Cotton is at 65.26, down 10 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 66.3, down 9 points

JUL 20 Cotton is at 67.05, up 3 points

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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